Description: The Society of Actuaries Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Investment Section and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries are pleased to release a new and improved version of the 2005 Society of Actuaries (SOA) Delphi study of four economic variables. Performed by Theodore J. Gordon, the research acquaints actuaries with the application of futures methods that could supplement traditional actuarial forecasting practices.

Description: The Society of Actuaries Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Investment Section and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries are pleased to release a new and improved version of the 2005 Society of Actuaries (SOA) Delphi study of four economic variables. Performed by Theodore J. Gordon, the research acquaints actuaries with the application of futures methods that could supplement traditional actuarial forecasting practices.

Description: In May, 2001, the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA) jointly issued a request for proposals on the research topic “Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios.” The objectives of this request were to develop a research relationship with selected persons to investigate this topic; produce a literature review of work previously done in the area of economic scenario modeling; determine appropriate data sources and methodologies to enhance economic modeling efforts relevant to the actuarial profession; and produce a working model of economic series, coordinated with interest rates, that could be made public and used by actuaries via the CAS / SOA websites to project future economic scenarios. Categories of economic series to be modeled included interest rates, equity price levels, inflation rates, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels.

Description: The SOA is pleased to make available a report updating the 2012 risk assessment performed by Porteous et al. The report also provided an economic capital analysis for a stylized US plan with the same member profile and the USS provisions modified to reflect a typical US DB plan.

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Committee on Finance Research is pleased to make available a research report covering the extent to which investment sectors have been contagiously affected by major disasters.

Description: This paper introduces actuaries and others to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, a type of macroeconomic model. Authored by Kailan Shang, the paper illustrates how DSGE models can be used in economic scenario generation to reflect the cause and effect relationships that occur in the economic system.

Description: The Society of Actuaries (SOA) commissioned Milliman to develop this report to provide health care stakeholders—patients, payers, policymakers and actuaries—with a comprehensive description of DPC as well as an objective actuarial evaluation of certain claims made about the DPC model of care.

Description: This paper develops the theory of the measurement of interest rate risks from its foundations, beginning with the question of which asset values market or book are economically relevant and therefore at risk. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1985, Vol. 37.

Description: This paper describes a typical consumer credit transaction, shows how the rule of 78 works, identifies its degree of accuracy, and discusses issues raised by its use, including federal truth-in-lending implications. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: The method described in this paper is to allocate surplus to each category of business and reserves in proportion to its estimated effect on an insurer's surplus variation. Risk load for each category of business is then selected so that the return on allocated surplus for each category is equal to the overall return on surplus. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.